March Madness 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation • 50,000 SimulationsData: 2026-04-08

Click a team name to see probabilities if they win it all

#	Seed	Region	R64	R32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Final	Champion
1	1	Midwest	100.0	98.7	86.1	69.1	53.0	37.5	23.1
2	1	West	100.0	100.0	86.0	68.8	52.5	35.1	22.2
3	1	East	100.0	97.9	80.5	59.4	41.4	23.7	14.0
4	1	South	100.0	98.8	74.1	47.4	26.7	12.6	5.7
5	2	South	100.0	95.9	73.6	42.8	24.1	11.0	4.8
6	2	East	100.0	96.3	72.8	45.7	21.7	9.9	4.5
7	3	South	100.0	99.9	74.4	41.1	22.6	10.3	4.3
8	2	West	100.0	99.9	73.2	46.0	18.5	8.4	3.5
9	2	Midwest	100.0	95.9	68.7	40.9	16.1	7.9	3.3
10	3	East	100.0	92.2	62.7	31.9	13.2	5.4	2.1
11	5	East	100.0	87.2	49.5	18.1	9.0	3.5	1.3
12	3	West	100.0	93.0	58.8	28.7	9.5	3.6	1.3
13	5	South	100.0	84.2	46.5	21.0	9.5	3.6	1.3
14	4	South	100.0	92.5	49.4	21.2	9.1	3.3	1.2
15	6	Midwest	100.0	77.5	43.8	22.3	7.5	3.2	1.1
16	4	West	100.0	99.9	62.2	17.1	8.2	3.0	1.1
17	4	Midwest	100.0	88.2	54.2	15.5	7.7	3.2	1.1
18	3	Midwest	100.0	91.6	48.7	23.2	6.9	2.7	0.9
19	4	East	100.0	99.8	48.4	15.0	6.2	2.0	0.7
20	5	Midwest	100.0	77.8	38.4	9.5	4.1	1.6	0.5
21	5	West	100.0	81.8	35.1	8.1	3.4	1.1	0.3
22	6	East	100.0	67.0	27.1	10.3	3.1	0.8	0.2
23	9	South	100.0	60.6	17.7	7.2	2.6	0.7	0.2
24	6	West	100.0	56.6	24.2	9.2	2.4	0.7	0.2
25	7	West	100.0	62.7	19.1	8.0	1.9	0.5	0.2
26	7	East	100.0	60.7	18.1	7.2	1.9	0.5	0.1
27	7	Midwest	100.0	57.5	19.2	7.7	1.8	0.5	0.1
28	8	East	100.0	53.2	10.7	4.1	1.4	0.4	<0.1
29	6	South	100.0	56.7	15.7	5.3	1.7	0.4	<0.1
30	7	South	100.0	53.1	14.2	4.5	1.3	0.3	<0.1
31	9	East	100.0	46.8	8.6	3.2	1.0	0.2	<0.1
32	8	West	100.0	51.7	7.5	3.2	1.1	0.3	<0.1