March Madness 2026

Monte Carlo Simulation • 50,000 SimulationsData: 2026-10-10

Click a team name to see probabilities if they win it all

#	Seed	Region	R64	R32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Final	Champion
1	1	Midwest	100.0	81.0	58.9	42.7	30.7	20.8	13.0
2	1	West	100.0	87.8	62.5	45.0	31.0	20.1	12.8
3	1	East	100.0	79.9	61.4	43.5	29.7	18.2	11.5
4	2	East	100.0	74.8	53.0	32.6	17.5	9.3	5.0
5	1	South	100.0	81.9	54.7	31.8	17.9	9.4	4.5
6	3	West	100.0	74.8	50.4	30.2	15.0	7.8	4.3
7	2	South	100.0	75.4	46.7	26.5	15.0	7.8	3.8
8	2	West	100.0	80.0	52.6	30.1	14.6	7.4	3.7
9	3	South	100.0	80.4	47.0	26.6	14.8	7.6	3.5
10	5	East	100.0	64.9	40.3	18.6	10.0	4.6	2.2
11	5	South	100.0	55.6	33.2	18.5	9.6	4.7	2.2
12	2	Midwest	100.0	64.3	38.2	20.5	9.4	4.7	2.2
13	3	Midwest	100.0	67.3	36.5	20.8	9.3	4.8	2.1
14	3	East	100.0	61.2	34.7	18.7	8.8	4.0	1.9
15	4	West	100.0	77.3	42.7	17.2	8.9	4.2	1.9
16	9	Midwest	100.0	63.0	23.7	13.0	7.0	3.5	1.5
17	4	South	100.0	65.4	31.5	16.1	7.6	3.5	1.5
18	9	West	100.0	59.1	22.0	11.9	6.1	2.9	1.4
19	7	South	100.0	62.8	30.9	15.3	7.4	3.2	1.4
20	11	South	100.0	57.1	29.0	14.6	7.3	3.3	1.3
21	6	Midwest	100.0	53.1	27.8	15.0	6.4	3.0	1.3
22	12	Midwest	100.0	55.4	29.6	11.8	6.1	3.0	1.2
23	4	Midwest	100.0	57.2	30.0	11.9	6.1	2.8	1.2
24	4	East	100.0	73.7	36.3	14.7	6.9	2.7	1.1
25	11	Midwest	66.4	34.8	19.1	10.5	4.7	2.3	1.0
26	12	South	100.0	44.4	24.0	12.0	5.6	2.5	1.0
27	12	West	100.0	53.7	28.3	10.6	5.2	2.1	0.9
28	11	East	100.0	52.8	26.1	12.9	5.4	2.3	0.9
29	10	Midwest	100.0	57.7	28.3	13.4	5.3	2.3	0.9
30	7	West	100.0	62.6	28.3	13.3	4.9	2.0	0.8
31	6	East	100.0	47.2	21.8	10.2	4.0	1.5	0.6
32	9	South	100.0	53.7	22.2	9.4	3.9	1.5	0.5